Export rescue economic growth in the third quarter

GDP in the third quarter increased by 7.3% year-on-year, the lowest level since the second quarter of 2009. The cumulative GDP of the first three quarters increased by 7.4% year-on-year. On average, if you want to achieve 7.5% for the whole year, the growth rate in the fourth quarter must reach 7.8%, which is a bit difficult. In view of the slump in the low level of industrial indicators in September, the central bank recently adopted a policy of loosening real estate and loosening funds. We expect GDP will rebound to 7.5% in the fourth quarter, annual growth will be 7.4%, and the growth target will be lowered to 7 next year. %.

In September, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 8% year-on-year, a rise of 1.1 percentage points from August. This increase may come mainly from better recent exports and improved inventory, as investment and consumption are still falling. The growth rate of power generation in September also rose from -2.4% in August to 4%. Given that the level of industrial growth is still at a relatively low level in history, it remains to be seen whether or not it can be stabilized.

Overall investment is still declining, and there has been no improvement in real estate and manufacturing investment. From January to September, fixed asset investment increased by 16.1% year-on-year, down 0.4% from January-August and 3.5% from 2013.

From the perspective of real estate investment, the YoY growth rate from January to September was 12.5%, which was a decrease of 0.7% from January to August and 7.3% from 2013. Compared with the relative low tide of real estate in 2012, the decline in real estate investment was about 5 percentage points, which means that this time the real estate downturn has exceeded 2012. From the perspective of manufacturing investment, the growth rate from January to September was 13.8% year-on-year, down 0.3 percentage points from January to August and 4.7 percentage points lower than 2013.

In September, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 11.6% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from August. In addition to the strong growth in the consumption of communications equipment, other major categories of consumption have been weak.

In September, exports increased by 15.3% year-on-year, nearly 6 percentage points higher than in August. Looking at the entire three quarters, exports grew by 13% year-on-year, the best quarterly performance over the past year or so, up 8 percentage points from the second quarter. According to Sheng Laiyun, spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics, the contribution rate of consumption to GDP growth in the first three quarters was 48.5%, which was about 7 percentage points higher than the contribution rate of capital formation. Then, the contribution of net exports to GDP growth is about 10%. Corresponding consumption, investment, and net exports contributed to 3.6, 3.1, and 0.7 percentage points of GDP growth in the first three quarters respectively. As a result, consumption, capital formation, and net exports in the first half of the year contributed to the growth of GDP by 4, 3.6 and -0.2 percentage points, respectively. Based on this, we roughly translate that in the third quarter of 7.3% growth, consumption and capital formation led to GDP growth of only 4.8 percentage points, while 2.5 percentage points came from net exports. It can be said that exports saved the economy in the third quarter and domestic demand was very poor.

From a country perspective, exports to the United States, Russia, and India were particularly strong in the third quarter. In the third quarter, exports to the United States increased by 11.5% year-on-year, 3 percentage points higher than in the second quarter. This is the best level in two years, which reflects the strong rebound of the US economy since the second quarter. In the third quarter, Russia’s exports rose by 20% year-on-year, an exceptionally high level, which was 15 percentage points higher than the second quarter. In fact, Russia’s economic growth this year has been below 1%, which is very poor. In the third quarter, Russia’s imports were negative year-on-year. We may benefit from the negative impact of geopolitics on Russia. Russia’s trade with other countries is transferred to China. In the third quarter, exports to India increased by 17.4% year-on-year, 10.4 percentage points higher than in the second quarter, which is the best level in more than two years. India’s economic growth in the first half of the year was around 6%, more than 1 percentage point higher than in 2013.

In September, imports increased by 7% year-on-year, which was out of the July and August increase. In the third quarter, imports increased by 1.3%, roughly the same as in the second quarter, and domestic demand was still at a very weak level. The trade surplus in September was 30.9 billion U.S. dollars, which was lower than that in August.

Credits improved in September. It is expected that the growth rate will reach 20% in the fourth quarter. M2 at the end of September will increase by 12.9% year-on-year, slightly up by 0.1% from August; M1 will increase by 4.8% year-on-year, 0.9% lower than August; ***** 85 billion yuan, 150 billion yuan higher than in August. This shows that after the economic downturn in July and August, credit in September eased.

We expect the total number of new entrants to increase by about 9.7 trillion yuan this year, an increase of 9.1% year-on-year, which is equivalent to that of 2013, which is also consistent with the tone that monetary aggregates are not relaxed. Since the active shrinkage of credit in the third quarter was very serious, it was -11.5% year-on-year, which left relatively large space for the fourth quarter. According to the scale of 9.7 trillion, the growth rate of new ***** in the fourth quarter will reach 25%, which is even higher than the second quarter. Based on this, we believe that the economic growth in the fourth quarter will increase to 7.5%.

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